College Football Prediction 2008

11/01/09

McCoy: Should he stay or should he go?

What surprised Justin King about LeSean McCoy was the number of questions the Pitt tailback asked this past fall about the difference between college football and the NFL.

"I think (underclassmen) should leave when it's their time," King said, "not just for the hell of it."

McCoy, pondering an early jump to the NFL, is expected to make a decision this week. The deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft is Thursday.

King, a former Gateway High and Penn State star and now a St. Louis Rams cornerback, can relate to McCoy. Like McCoy, King received a first-round grade from the NFL Draft advisory board. King's report suggested he could go as low as the fourth round.

Like McCoy, King believed he could elevate his status by wowing teams with his workout. King then ran a 4.31-second 40-yard dash that ranked second only to Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson at the NFL Combine.

Yet, King slipped to the fourth round (101st overall) and signed a three-year contract worth $1.526 million that included a $376,000 signing bonus and a rookie salary of $295,000. King tore ligaments in his big toe and missed his rookie season, but he still earned his salary plus bonus. Had he missed the season at Penn State, his draft stock may have taken a serious hit.

King says McCoy's decision on whether to declare himself eligible for the NFL Draft or return for his junior season should depend on whether McCoy feels he can become a better running back by returning to Pitt.

"That's a big misconception," said King, who had earned his degree by the end of his junior season. "You're not guaranteed to get better. You could get worse. It's a risk both ways. It's just, which risk are you willing to take: not getting drafted as high as you want, or getting hurt if you come back to school? There's no 100 percent, safe-proof choice."

One factor weighing heavily with McCoy is the possibility of sustaining an injury that could threaten his career or adversely affect his draft status. It's a legitimate concern, as McCoy was rated the nation's No. 1 running back prospect entering his senior year at Harrisburg's Bishop McDevitt High School before fracturing his right leg early that season.

Two McCoy family members told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review on Thursday that he was ready to announce his intentions to declare for the NFL Draft. Following an emotional meeting with Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt Friday, McCoy is delaying the decision until this week.

Numbers game

At least two running backs have been selected in the first round of every NFL Draft since 1999. Five were taken last April, including Rashard Mendenhall by the Steelers at pick No. 23.

The difference between going late in the first round and slipping to the second or third rounds is costly. Mendenhall signed a five-year contract worth $12.55 million with a $6.83 million signing bonus, but a pair of Big East backs who left early got a fraction of that.

Rutgers' Ray Rice, selected in the second round (55th overall) by Baltimore, signed a four-year deal worth $2.805 million with a $1.1 million bonus. West Virginia's Steve Slaton, chosen in the third round (89th) by Houston, signed a four-year, $2.37 million deal and received a signing bonus of $664,500.

One thing that could cause McCoy to change his mind and return to Pitt is the growing number of underclassmen running backs who have declared for the 2009 NFL Draft: Connecticut's Donald Brown, Alabama's Glen Coffee, Iowa's Shonn Green, Wisconsin's P.J. Hill, Georgia's Knowshon Moreno and Ohio State's Chris Wells.

By returning, McCoy could be considered the top back next year.

ESPN Draft analyst Todd McShay, director of college football scouting for Scouts, Inc., regards McCoy as one of the top three backs and predicted that McCoy would be a late first-round selection.

"Outside of Moreno and Wells, he doesn't have anything to worry about, in my opinion," McShay said. "To me, it goes Moreno, Wells, McCoy."

There also is a belief in the McCoy family that he could improve his stock with an impressive showing at the NFL Combine or Pitt's Pro Day. That's what former Pitt star cornerback Darrelle Revis did in 2007, when he was selected 14th overall by the N.Y. Jets.

"Those drills will confirm that (McCoy) is an athlete," McShay said, "and has the ability to do at the next level what he did in college."

Ready or not

The most celebrated player in Pitt football history shares the same feelings as many Panthers fans about McCoy.

Selfishly, Tony Dorsett admits, he wants McCoy to come back and lead Pitt to a Big East championship.

Dorsett, the only Heisman Trophy winner in school history, can offer a different perspective as a running back enshrined to both the college and pro football Halls of Fame.

As a potential NFL first-round draft pick, McCoy is holding a winning lottery ticket. It's just a matter of whether he should take his chances and cash in now or see if the pot increases next year.

"It would be ludicrous to say to turn down that money. Still, you have a commitment to your university and to your teammates," Dorsett said, prior to Pitt playing in the Sun Bowl. "I think another year would do him good. I can say that because I'm prejudiced.

"But let me tell you this: He's the truth. The man can run. He's got good balance and vision. He's got the speed and shake. I see him as the whole package."

McCoy finished with 1,488 yards and 21 touchdowns on 308 carries and was second on the team with 32 receptions for 305 yards in 2008. His 2,816 rushing yards and 36 touchdowns are the most ever by a Pitt player over his freshman and sophomore seasons, bettering the respective marks set by Dorsett (2,690 from '73-74) and Fitzgerald (34 from '02-03).

Although McCoy has drawn comparisons to Dorsett, the Pitt legend says how McCoy's talents will translate to the NFL depends on his willingness to work at his craft.

"I don't know how much more he's going to learn," Dorsett said. "The NFL is a much faster and more physical game. The mental approach becomes much more important than it is at any other level. Running back is one of those positions where it's a natural thing, a gift that you have. Going in and taking a lot more hits is not a thing that's conducive. But he's young."

McCoy, only 20, is torn between his fondness for playing at Pitt and a sense of obligation to provide financial security for his family. Although he still appears to be leaning toward turning pro, the meeting with Wannstedt was described as emotional and McCoy could reconsider.

"If you're second-guessing yourself, you're not ready," King said. "You have to expect the worst and hope for the best because you have no control of the draft. When you make the decision, you have to do it wholeheartedly.

"It's not always about the money."

pittsburghlive.com

03/01/09

Spread offense wouldn't fly with Woody, Royal

The dinosaurs occasionally tried to fly. But it wasn't in their DNA.

Both Darrell Royal at Texas and the late Woody Hayes at Ohio State have been credited with saying, "Three things can happen when you pass, and two of them are bad."

Both Hayes and Royal, the iconic figures of the powerhouse programs that meet in Monday's Fiesta Bowl, seem unlikely to cotton to this dipsy-doodle stuff being sprung on America by the spread formation.

The spread quarterback has four or five receivers strung across the field. The defense is stretched to the breaking point. Most runs are draw plays, a method of counter-punching that uses the defense's aggressiveness against it. It has almost no correlation to the days of "3 yards and a cloud of dust."

Texas QB Colt McCoy completed 78 percent of his passes this season. "Ten years ago, it probably would have been unheard of," said OSU coach Jim Tressel. McCoy was Texas' leading rusher, too. At that, Texas was almost stodgy compared with the statistical orgies of Big 12 rivals Texas Tech and Oklahoma.

Ohio State plays in an alternate universe from the Big 12 powers, but Tressel still turned the keys to the kingdom over to true freshman Terrelle Pryor.

More like the inexperienced McCoy who lost to OSU two years ago than the real McCoy who was the Heisman Trophy runner-up this season, Pryor still led the Big Ten in passing efficiency.

Ohio State has won seven Heismans, Texas two. Those winners usually did not pass the ammunition. They lugged it. In 2006, OSU's Troy Smith was the first quarterback in Big Ten history - not just Ohio State history - to win college football's top honor.

Longhorn Heisman winners Earl Campbell and Ricky Williams were big, punishing backs.

"It's true that I always liked having a big back around," said Royal, who also coached bangers like Steve Worster, Ted Koy and Roosevelt Leaks.

Chris "Beanie" Wells was expected to contend for the Heisman in that role at Ohio State this season. But Wells' injuries caused him to miss much of the early season, and the offensive focus changed to exploit Pryor's legs and camouflage a suspect offensive line.

The top four finishers in this year's Heisman race were quarterbacks. Fifth place went to a wide receiver. Finally, Shonn Greene of Iowa, in sixth place, was a running back.

To coaches from the days of Hayes and Royal, all this passing must seem like something from a sci-fi movie.

Woody's experiments with the pass left him seriously peeved. In the epic upset loss to Michigan in 1969, the Buckeyes turned the ball over seven times - six of them on interceptions. So desperate was Hayes that he even benched his great leader, Rex Kern, only to watch backup Ron Maciejowski throw more balls to the wrong-colored jerseys.

In the infamous 10-10 tie in 1973 with Michigan, OSU quarterback Cornelius Greene never threw a pass. Greene said, "Coach Hayes didn't trust me to throw. Then again, he never trusted anyone to throw."

Royal was not a finesse guy. Even when the then-new wishbone formation was all the rage, he was philosophically opposed to leaving one defensive end unblocked so that the end's reaction determined the quarterback's read on the triple-option. "I don't like not blocking people," he fumed.

Despite his own comfort level with the pass, Tressel doesn't think power football is ever going away "because there's always going to be fourth-and-1 and there's always going to be the ball landing on the 1-yard line. And there's always going to be someone who decides, 'Hey, that's who we are and that's what we're going to do.' "

Would that be Woody, if he were alive?

Tressel said: "Woody would probably evolve with [the spread] a lot easier than he would evolve with this [media] set-up and the Internet and all that. He could understand football evolution. I'm not sure he could understand the blogs and the rivals.com checking out recruits in ninth grade. Woody might struggle a bit."

"I knew Woody Hayes, of course," Royal said. "He was a man of his era. In this era, he would be smart enough to hire a staff who could teach the thing."

Maybe. But it is easy to imagine Woody mangling a flagstick and then a spread quarterback after an interception.

"It would take some getting used to. I sure wouldn't know how to coach it," Royal said.

(c)2007-2009 Big Ten Network

27/12/08

TB Reginald Bryant counts 13 offers, including Georgia Tech


Tailback Reginald Bryant said he's still celebrating Cairo's Class AAA championship, and hasn't given his full attention to recruiting. However, Bryant said when he does, he will be taking an official visit to Louisville in January, along with considering trips to Georgia Tech, NC State, and South Florida.

The shifty tailback said he has 13 major-college offers.

"We're still celebrating from the championship a little bit so I'm not sure what my other visits will be," said Bryant, who will play in Monday's Georgia Athletic Coaches Association North-South All-Star Football Classic in Columbus.

"I'm not sure who I am going to (sign) with. I just feel fortunate to have the chance to play in college."

Copyright(c) 2008 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

22/12/08

St. X's Muldoon picks Wisconsin

St. Xavier senior defensive end Pat Muldoon has orally committed to play football at the University of Wisconsin.

Muldoon, who is 6 feet 4 and 248 pounds, also considered schools that included Virginia, Duke, Boston College and Cincinnati. He also had offers from several other schools.

Muldoon, one of the state's top college prospects, was an Associated Press Division I all-state co-defensive player of the year this past season. Muldoon, who was a first-team All-Greater Catholic League South division selection, had 60 tackles (15 for loss), eight sacks and 31 quarterback pressures.

Muldoon is rated the nation's No. 24-best weakside defensive end in the 2009 class by Rivals.com.

Copyright (c)2008 The Enquirer

14/12/08

AU picks Iowa State's Chizik

AUBURN - Iowa State's Gene Chizik agreed Saturday to become Auburn's new head football coach in a stunning conclusion to the search to replace Tommy Tuberville.

Officials from both schools confirmed the news Saturday night.

"Through my travels in coaching over the last 23 years, there's one place that I've always wanted to return to and that is Auburn," the 46-year-old Chizik said in a statement, which was released at 9 p.m.

"The tradition of the Auburn football program, combined with the passionate fans and their love for Auburn, are second to none. My family and I are Auburn through and through, and look forward to being part of the Auburn family and community."

As word of Chizik's hiring spread Saturday, it appeared that many in the Auburn family and community didn't feel the same way.

Chizik will return to the Plains with a two-year record of 5-19 at Iowa State and carrying a 10-game losing streak, which means his hiring could be a tough sell to Tigers fans, many of whom seemed angry or bewildered by Saturday's news.

Popular Auburn Internet message boards were almost unanimously negative, blogs on al.com overflowed with vitriolic comments, and some fans even came to the airport to meet Athletic Director Jay Jacobs and school President Jay Gogue and express their displeasure.

When Auburn's university jet returned home Saturday afternoon, about 20 fans were waiting. There were no cheers, but one man repeatedly heckled and shouted at Jacobs and Gogue, chanting "5 and 19!" Another man confronted Jacobs as he walked to his car and said he would be giving up his season tickets.

Chizik interviewed with Auburn officials Thursday in Texas and met again Saturday in Memphis with a group that included Gogue.

The Cyclones were 2-10 this season and winless in the Big 12. But prior to his dismal stint as a first-time college head coach, Chizik was viewed as a promising assistant. Chizik was defensive coordinator for Auburn's undefeated 2004 team, then left for Texas after the season and was part of the Longhorns' 2005 national championship team.

Tuberville left 11 days ago in a negotiated resignation that paid him a $5.08 million settlement. About 100 fans and students who believe Tuberville was forced out marched to the president's mansion on campus last week.

The Tigers are coming off a 5-7 finish, which included a season-ending 36-0 beating from Alabama in the Iron Bowl, but Tuberville was 85-40 in his 10-year tenure on the Plains.

Tuberville was paid $2.8 million in 2008. Chizik made about $1.1 million annually at Iowa State and his buyout was $750,000. His new deal calls for a roughly $2 million annual salary, according to the Birmingham News.

While many fans remember Auburn's explosive 2004 offense, the Tigers' defense was just as good. Auburn allowed only 11.3 points per game, the lowest mark in the nation. After the season, Chizik jumped to Texas. He was replaced at Auburn and eventually at Texas by Will Muschamp, who is now the designated successor to Coach Mack Brown in Austin.

David Irons Jr., a former Auburn cornerback who is now with the Atlanta Falcons, was recruited by Chizik but didn't play for him in 2004 because of a torn ACL.

"The guys will love him; he's a player's coach," Irons said. "When you're doing something good, he'll be high on you. When you're doing something bad, he's going to let you know. ... He'll call you out. He's going to let you know that if you're going to play sloppy, he'll find somebody else. He doesn't show any favoritism."

Chizik is a native of Clearwater, Fla. He played college football at Florida, graduating in 1985. Before landing at Auburn in 2002, he served as an assistant at Clemson, Middle Tennessee, Stephen F. Austin and Central Florida.

"I am dedicated to working tirelessly to win championships," Chizik said. "We will not be outworked in any facet of the building process. I'm excited to get on the recruiting trail, meeting with the current players and reconnecting with past players. We want to develop young men into champions not only on the playing field, but in the classroom and in the community."

Chizik has already started searching for assistants and is unlikely to bring his current staff from Iowa State intact. Auburn linebackers coach James Willis, a former Tigers player and Huntsville native, is considered the most likely coach to remain on the new staff.

Auburn said it would formally introduce Chizik in a news conference Monday at 1 p.m.

Iowa State athletic director Jamie Pollard will address media the same day in Ames. Pollard's statement confirming Chizik's departure Saturday night was frosty.

"I'm disappointed for our Iowa State fans and student-athletes that he has chosen to leave our program after only two seasons," Pollard said. "I understand that (Auburn) is a dream job for him, but the timing and the way it played out has been hurtful and disappointing."

Saturday's hiring ended a methodical, by-the-book search conducted by Jacobs and a small team of senior advisers. Jacobs interviewed perhaps a dozen candidates in New York, various campuses and neutral sites.

In addition to Chizik, seven coaches had confirmed or widely reported interviews with Auburn: TCU coach Gary Patterson, Ball State coach Brady Hoke, Louisiana Tech coach Derek Dooley, Tulsa coach Todd Graham, Buffalo coach Turner Gill, Miami (Fla.) assistant Patrick Nix and Georgia assistant Rodney Garner.

When Auburn officials wrapped up their meeting with Chizik on Saturday in Memphis, word of the hire quickly spread through the Internet. But not everyone was checking message boards.

"If he took another job, that little rascal didn't call me," his mother Rita told the Des Moines Register. "I'll be darned."

(c) 2008 Alabama Live LLC

06/12/08

Kiffin can make strong impression recruiting

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (AP) -- It didn't take long for new Tennessee coach Lane Kiffin to hit the recruiting trail.

Kiffin was introduced as the Volunteers coach on Monday afternoon and was on a plane to Memphis just a few hours later to visit with top prospect Marlon Brown, a wide receiver at Harding Academy.

"The previous staff has put together a very good roster, but we've got to make it better. We've got to go out and get great players to work with," Kiffin said.

The 2009 signing class will be the first shot for Kiffin, the former Oakland Raiders coach who's never been a college head coach, and the staff he's assembling to make a strong first impression.

Before he announced Nov. 3 that he wouldn't return as coach next season, Fulmer was putting together what recruiting analysts rated as a top 10 class for next season. After the announcements, several players backed off their commitments to Tennessee.

That makes Kiffin's job between now and signing day on Feb. 4 a little bit tougher.

"They have a short recruiting window," said Jamie Newberg, a national recruiting analyst for Rivals.com. "Their rivals like (Georgia coach) Mark Richt and (Florida coach) Urban Meyer have been recruiting some guys for a year, even two or three in some cases."

Newberg said the first recruiting class for any new coach -- even for someone like Kiffin with a strong reputation for recruiting -- is always the hardest. He must quickly identify his player needs while trying to make recruiting visits and assemble a staff.

Kiffin immediately hired his brother-in-law, former South Carolina recruiting coordinator and quarterbacks coach David Reaves, to help with the process because of his ties to the Southeastern Conference.

He also is retaining offensive line coach Greg Adkins, running backs coach Stan Drayton, receivers coach Latrell Scott and tight ends coach Jason Michael from Fulmer's staff to help. Those four will be auditioning to permanently keep their jobs during the recruitment period.

Coaches like Drayton and Scott could help attract big-time playmakers like Brown or running back prospect Jarvis Giles at the skilled positions, which Newberg said was one of Tennessee's most pressing needs along with finding a quarterback to fit Kiffin's offense and rebuilding the offensive line.

One of Kiffin's first calls on Sunday, the first day he was cleared by the NCAA to contact recruits and a day before he was introduced as coach, went to Giles, a Tampa, Fla., native.

Kiffin said he's committed to recruiting nationally and trying to "put a fence around the state of Tennessee" to keep Tennessee talent in-state.

"We've got to find the best players and we've got to get them to come to the University of Tennessee so we can do this thing and make a run for a long, long time," he said.

He joked that while he was an assistant at Southern California under coach Pete Carroll, his fellow assistants split up the recruiting in California while he got the other 49 states.

Because Tennessee produces only about a half-dozen top-notch, SEC-quality recruits each year, it's imperative that he recruit on that sort of basis, Newberg said.

"Tennessee has got to be national. That's what made coach Fulmer so successful," he said.

As a 33-year-old coach, Kiffin has an advantage by possibly being able to relate to the prospects more than some of his fellow coaches. He can also offer them positive comparisons of Tennessee to USC, which has fielded top-tier recruiting classes year after year.

Kiffin may also promise them a shot to play almost immediately. He's told the returning Vols that they must earn their starting jobs or risk losing them to freshmen in 2009.

He may also have another bonus to offer to prospects: the chance of playing for his father, current Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, considered one of the top defensive minds in the NFL.

Kiffin won't confirm reports that his father and current New Orleans Saints assistant Ed Orgeron, a colleague of Kiffin's at USC, will follow him to Tennessee while their teams are in the middle of the NFL season.

But it could play largely in his favor if he finds a way to let recruits know that they might be playing for someone like his father.

And while those factors might not immediately translate into success on the field, they should mean Kiffin will be competitive in attracting talent.

"I think it's a great hire. I think it's exactly what they needed," Newberg said.

(c) 2008 SportingNews.com

01/12/08

Arkansas Tech Wonder Boys break even again in 2008 football


It was an up-and-down year for the Arkansas Tech Wonder Boys and head coach Steve Mullins, who finished the 2008 football season with a big 56-34 win over Harding Academy.

While Tech finished the season with a 5-5 overall record for the second straight year, the Wonder Boys went 4-4 in the Gulf South Conference, a game better than 2007.

"It was a great way to finish," Mullins, who finished his 12th season at Tech, said recently. "We had great fans and support at all our home games, not just our last one. Nov. 8 was a great day to be a Wonder Boy. I wish we could have played better defense.

"The seniors fought hard all season long. I hope the lessons they learned this season will help them as people in life. We told them some bad things happened, but if that's all that happens to them in life, they will be OK."

Offensively, it was a successful season for senior wide receiver Tracey Stiger of Russellville, senior quarterback and Harlon Hill Trophy candidate Cole Barthel, and a stout rushing attack that ranked third in the GSC at 178 yards per game. Barthel, who transferred to Tech from the University of Arkansas, completed 224-of-372 passes (60 percent) for 2,674 yards, 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also rushed for 254 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Junior running back Tim Childress of Batesville led all rushers with 603 yards on 104 carries with two touchdowns, while redshirt freshman Joby Hills of Carenco, La., had 396 yards on 89 carries and was second on the team with seven TDs. Sophomore Cody Burns of Pine Bluff ran for 262 yards on 39 carries and a score.

Tech was ranked fifth in the GSC in passing offense (267.6 yards per game) due to a gifted group of receivers led by Stiger, who led the Wonder Boys with 65 catches for 695 yards and five scores. Junior wideout Landon Turner wasn't far behind - 40 passes for 628 yards and three touchdowns - and senior wide receiver and quarterback Justin Ray had 37 catches for 539 yards and two TDs.

Tech ranked fifth in the league in total offense (445.5 ypg) and seventh in scoring offense (30.5 ppg), while the Wonder Boys defense allowed 461.1 yards and 33.6 points per game, ninth and eighth respectively. Stopping the run was Tech's vice all year, as the Wonder Boys allowed 220 yards per game (11th in GSC).

Tech's defense finished sixth in defending the pass (241.1 yards per game).

Sophomore free safety Tario Dansby totaled 55.5 tackles, four for losses of nine yards, and three interceptions to lead Tech's defense. Junior defensive back DeAuntra Rideau was second with 49.5 tackles, two for loss, and two interceptions.

Four Tech players were named to the all-conference first or second teams: Senior offensive tackle Jeremy Ashcraft, junior center Torrence Wright, senior punter Michael Podobnik and Stiger.

The Wonder Boys were 3-2 at Thone Stadium at Buerkle Field this year, where Mullins said some major reconstruction work will be done on the field during the offseason. Tech opened 2008 with a 22-3 win over Northeastern State, then a nail-biting 26-24 victory over West Alabama to open conference play 1-0. They were sandwiched by a 49-14 drubbing at Central Missouri.

Tech picked up a crucial GSC win at Arkansas-Monticello (38-35). The Wonder Boys, however, suffered a stunning 45-42 loss at winless Southern Arkansas, which later fired head coach Steve Quinn after a 2-8 season. Tech rallied with a 31-point second half, but came up a field goal short. The Wonder Boys rebounded by thumping West Georgia on the road 49-24.

Tech, however, also felt the wrath of third-ranked North Alabama (45-24 loss), which could play for a NCAA Division II national title on its home field in a couple of weeks. Henderson State spoiled the Wonder Boys' senior day 29-23, then Tech had to go to Delta State and was defeated 48-14. Then came the Wonder Boys season finale against Harding.

Copyright 2008 Russellville Newspapers, Inc.